9/22/2024
A bullish September? What about seasonality?
The market had a bullish week overall, September although it felt like a bit of a roller coaster at first—sort of like August started out a little questionable. We didn't see quite the dramatic drop this time around, but there was plenty of selling, and, as usual, a lot of people were screaming about seasonality.
So how would you have known to block out all that noise? I don't think you can. But here’s where keeping trades small and manageable pays off, and that’s what I’ve been stressing for a while now—smaller swing trades. And they worked out really well for me this week.
With Monday still ahead, unless something drastic happens, it looks like seasonality for September didn't pan out the way many were expecting. SPY and QQQ are both looking bullish on the monthly charts.
Stay Between the Buoys: Avoid the Trap of Over-Managing
As for me, I’ll be watching from a cruise ship. Even though I’d love to say I’m completely unplugging, let’s be real—I’ll probably take a few glances at the market between frozen drinks. This is what AI think it’s going to look like. (There are far too many empty seats and those dollars on the table would obviously blow away!)
Here's something I’ve been reflecting on, especially as I think about the constant adjustments traders make to their portfolios: we all overmanage. It’s like trying to steer a massive ship through a tight port.
There are red and green markers signaling danger ahead, but as long as you stay between the buoys, you’re safe. It’s the same with your portfolio—you don’t need constant overcorrections.
So here's the challenge: how can you set up your portfolio to avoid over-correcting? How can you keep it between the markers?
Here’s what I recommend:
Build solid watchlists. Mr Money Maxwell Inner Circle members have access to several of my watchlists.
Set up scanners to find trades (or hop into the GKT Discord for some ideas).
Once your trades are placed, immediately put in your Good 'Til Canceled (GTC)Â orders.
Set a few alerts at critical price levels—just like those red and green buoys—
Then walk away until it’s time to make adjustments.
The problem comes when you overreact to every move. If you lower your delta during a down move in the morning, only to see a rally later in the day, you end up losing on both sides. Remember, stocks don’t move in a straight line, and trades won’t always head directly to your target.
I’ve got no problem with day traders, but I do have a big problem with traders trying to turn their longer-term swing trades into day trades. You end up spending too much time fiddling with your positions when you could be doing something more important—like letting the math and your trading thesis work for you.
This week, my challenge to you is to let go of the constant adjustments. Set your plan, manage your risk, and then step back.
That’s my approach this week and really, my approach all the time. I’ll be catching some down time in the solarium, with a couple stops at CocoCay,  with a frozen drink in hand, of course.
Happy trading, and remember, don’t oversteer the ship!
-$Maxwell
Weekly Review:
Spy- another weekly close at an all time high! We’re extended from the moving averages, just go easy here friends. October right before the presidential election? Be careful
QQQ- tech is slightly weaker than SPY, but you see how it just closed right at a neckline retest of an interesting double bottom? For now that looks bullish to me.
IWM- Nice compression this week, I like the inside hammer. Look for IWM to continue higher, especially if it breaks above this week.Â
VIX- Volatility remains pretty low, we did get a little hammer this week. Can we get a bid and perhaps a little pullback next week as VIX expands? No one knows, something to watch.
RSP- you can see strength in the equal weighted S&P500. This rally is more than just one sector.
TLT- Treasury bonds are taking a little break. I think they already moved on the rate cuts, so a rest makes sense here. Look for TLT to keep going up as more
GLD- Gold has been on a rampage with 3 bullish weeks in a row. RSI shows this run was pretty quick. A little rest makes sense even if GLD continues higher.
SPYD- still looking strong, again look at RSI and think about how dividend stocks have moved faster than growth stocks.
Upcoming Dividends
Aristocrats
Kings
Pretty busy week, Powell speaking, JOLTS, Jobless Claims and Nonfarm payrolls. The labor market will be the focus as rates cuts are projected to continue in November.
Not too many earnings, however CCL, MKC, NKE and STZ are all stocks I watch.
That’s all for this week. Mr Money Maxwell Inner Circle member have access to 9 charts I’m watching this week. If you aren’t a member join today before prices go up! I cut out the symbols of course, but you can subscribe to see them!
I will be on a cruise all week. I’ll still be around but I will be a little more quiet as I need a little down time. See you next week right here, much sooner in discord!
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